National Development Commission (NDC) head Kung Ming-hsin (???) has defended the government’s roadmap for achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but serious questions remain about Taiwan’s short-term goals and the plan’s dependence on technology.

Based on the roadmap’s targets, 60-70 percent of Taiwan’s electricity needs in 2050 will be met by renewables, with another 9-12 percent coming from hydrogen and 20-27 percent coming from fossil fuels with carbon capture, utilization and storage capabilities.

There was considerable skepticism about Taiwan’s ability to meet the goals, but Kung deflected the criticism, saying in an interview with CNA that the goals were similar to those of other countries, citing South Korea and Japan.

South Korea anticipated getting 61-71 percent of its electricity needs from renewables by 2050 while Japan’s goal was 50-60 percent, he said.

Kung argued that Taiwan could actually get nearly 80 percent of its electricity from renewables by 2050 through solar and wind power and other power generating methods, but said the report settled on a 60-70 percent target because of Taiwan’s geographical limitations and current pace of deployment of renewables.

Kung made it clear that the 2050 plan would be dependent on advances in technology, pointing to the need to develop hydrogen power, carbon capture and recycling approaches and more efficient ways of generating solar and offshore wind power.

“Taiwan is bringing in technologies from Europe and getting overseas companies to invest in Taiwan. Technology advances will be made in step with the world,” he said.

“We will only fall short if the world falls short,” he said.

Those ambitions, however, could be derailed fairly early in the game by funding issues, environmental groups said.

The roadmap committed the government to spending NT$900 billion (US$31 billion) over the next eight years to set a foundation for the 2050 goal.

Of that, NT$210.7 billion will go to renewables and hydrogen energy, NT$207.8 billion will be put into the electricity grid and energy storage, and another NT$168.3 billion will go to the promotion of electric transportation.

Greenpeace Taiwan criticized the spending as being only about a third of the roughly NT$300 billion a year South Korea is investing in its energy transition, and said the government was seriously underestimating the costs of pursuing carbon neutral goals.

It also noted that half of Taiwan’s pledged investment will come from Taiwan’s state-run enterprises, including utility Taiwan Power Co. and oil refiner CPC Corp. Taiwan.

Both of them, Greenpeace said, have faced financial difficulties in recent years, and questioned where their funds would come from.

Meanwhile, Kung said the focus of the government until 2030 would be to lay the groundwork for the new technologies that will help achieve net zero emissions and focus on reducing energy consumption.

Of the NT$900 billion budget, NT$128 billion would be spent on incentives to reduce power consumption and replace old equipment, including inefficient factory and office air conditioning systems, outdated 500KVA transformers, and power-guzzling 100kw motors.

Kung said the changes would have a “very big” impact on Taiwan’s overall energy consumption, but he did not provide any context for the potential of those electricity savings.

“The budget for this will be a priority,” he said, noting that government agencies are making plans to encourage the changes as well as the adoption of “intelligent” production lines and the use of carbon reduction and net zero principles in public infrastructure projects.

How much of a dent those measures would put in Taiwan’s emissions is a major question mark, given the urgency of bringing emissions down.

The most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, described as a “now or never” warning if the world is to mitigate climate disasters, said limiting warming to around 1.5 degrees Celsius will require greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest and be reduced by 43 percent by 2030.

Methane would also need to be reduced by about a third, it said.

“It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F),” said IPCC Working Group III Co-Chair Jim Skea. “Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.”

At present, Taiwan’s goal is to reduce emissions by 10-20 percent by 2030 from 2005 levels, well short of the IPCC’s target.

Alan Lin (???), deputy chief of the Office of Energy and Carbon Reduction under the Executive Yuan, said Tuesday that the goal was not changed in the roadmap because there had not been time to discuss how to achieve it, but he indicated it could be adjusted before the end of the year.

That may be difficult, considering that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government’s current energy transition plan has already fallen behind schedule.

The DPP government set a goal after taking power in mid-2016 of phasing out nuclear power and forging an electricity mix of 50 percent natural gas, 30 percent coal and 20 percent renewables by 2025, from about 14 percent nuclear, 45 percent coal, 31 percent natural gas, 4.5 percent oil-fired and 5 percent renewables in 2015.

In 2021, however, the Ministry of Economic Affairs lowered the target for renewables to 15 percent, and just recently Economics Minister Wang Mei-hua said the 20 percent goal would likely not be achieved until 2027.

Source: Focus Taiwan News Channel