Taipei: China’s approach to Taiwan is unlikely to shift despite remarks labeled as “provocative” by Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, as Beijing’s actions are primarily guided by President Xi Jinping’s goal of unification, rather than rhetoric from Taipei, scholars revealed on Tuesday.

According to Focus Taiwan, scholars emphasized that the tension across the Taiwan Strait is not solely the result of President Lai’s statements, but rather a reflection of Xi Jinping’s aggressive strategy towards achieving unification with Taiwan. Wang Hung-jen, a political science professor at National Cheng Kung University, highlighted examples such as Lai’s inauguration speech and his mid-March announcement of 17 strategic initiatives targeting China, which were followed by significant Chinese military drills around Taiwan.

In his May 20 inauguration speech, Lai declared that the Republic of China (Taiwan’s official name) and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to one another. Furthermore, at a national security meeting in March, Lai described China as a “foreign hostile force” under Taiwan’s Anti-Infiltration Act. Wang pointed out that China has long maintained a narrative that as long as Taiwan’s president avoids provocation, Beijing will refrain from drastic measures. However, any actions perceived as provocative by Chinese authorities justify a response from China.

Wang argued that attributing China’s actions to Lai’s so-called “provocative” moves is misleading, as Xi’s administration has adopted a more aggressive stance towards Taiwan than previous Chinese leaderships. He asserted that even in the absence of any statements from Lai, China’s approach would remain unchanged.

Echoing Wang’s sentiments, Sana Hashmi, a fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation, suggested that unifying Taiwan is a “legacy issue” for Xi, and Lai’s silence would not alter China’s policy. Hashmi emphasized that China’s policy towards Taiwan remains consistent, irrespective of developments in Taiwan’s political landscape. She noted that with the Democratic Progressive Party’s continued governance, Xi’s grip on Taiwan appears to be diminishing, which may explain the increased frequency and intensity of Chinese military exercises.

Hashmi also criticized an article in Foreign Policy, which urged former U.S. President Trump to “rein in” Taiwan. She dismissed claims of Lai’s “subtler political escalations” as “utter nonsense,” reiterating that Lai’s focus on peace and self-determination does not provoke China. During a phone interview, Hashmi suggested that it is improbable for Trump to pressure Lai unless China offers substantial concessions to the U.S.

Wang proposed that the U.S. should adopt a clearer policy to prevent cross-strait conflict arising from misunderstandings, instead of maintaining strategic ambiguity. He argued that uncertainty could lead to misjudgments and misunderstandings of U.S. intentions by both Taiwan and China.