Taipei: Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, comparisons have frequently been drawn between Ukraine and Taiwan, both facing aggressive neighbors. Taiwan-based Canadian author J. Michael Cole argues in his new book, “The Taiwan Tinderbox,” that defending Taiwan from a Chinese invasion is essential for maintaining global stability.

According to Focus Taiwan, in a recent interview, Cole highlighted the interdependence among democratic countries, citing Ukraine’s resistance against Russia as a crucial example. He emphasized that Ukraine’s prolonged struggle sends a signal to nations like Beijing and Tehran about the high costs of invasion, in terms of both resources and reputation.

Cole argues that a swift Chinese takeover of Taiwan would send a dangerous signal to other authoritarian regimes, suggesting that forceful objectives are achievable. He underscores the importance of defending Taiwan and Ukraine as part of the broader interest of democratic communities worldwide, warning that losing these battles could lead to further conflicts.

While Cole refrains from predicting an invasion, he presents various factors that could influence Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s decision-making. Xi’s ambitions to absorb Taiwan and his consolidation of power, including purging rivals and narrowing his advisory circle, increase the risks of miscalculation. Meanwhile, the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army presents a formidable challenge.

Cole suggests that Taiwan must prepare for self-defense, advocating for civilian training to bolster readiness. He argues that Taiwan cannot rely solely on international assistance, as countries will act based on national interests. Preparing civilians for combat is crucial, as polls on willingness to fight may not reflect reality under actual conflict conditions.

Additionally, Cole discusses the potential impact of sanctions on China, drawing lessons from those imposed on Russia. He suggests that G7 countries could leverage their influence over China’s access to high technologies, imposing trade restrictions that would impact China’s economy. However, this requires strategic preparedness to minimize the impact on their own economies.