Taipei: Escalating conflict in the Middle East is unlikely to trigger an immediate cross-strait crisis or directly imperil Taiwan in U.S.-China dealings, but it could pose growing risks by straining U.S. resources and complicating the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, scholars said.
According to Focus Taiwan, Chieh Chung, an adjunct associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, indicated that U.S. President Donald Trump is attempting to replicate a short, high-intensity military operation similar to the one against ousted Venezuelan President Nicol¡s Maduro. This strategy aims to allow Trump to concentrate U.S. resources on the Indo-Pacific region for long-term competition with China.
Chieh explained that if the Middle East conflict extends, the U.S. might have to rely on precision airstrikes due to the unlikelihood of deploying large numbers of ground troops. He highlighted warnings from the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command about shortages in precision-guided munitions, which could impact U.S. military readiness and weaken its deterrence against China in the western Pacific. Nevertheless, Chieh assessed the risk of an immediate Chinese invasion as low, citing Beijing’s strategic goals of peaceful unification and the Chinese military’s limited capability for quick victory following the ouster of senior military figures.
Chang Wu-ueh, a senior advisor at the Institute for National Policy Research, noted that recent U.S. actions against Venezuela and Iran signal Washington’s focus on strategic competition with China. With both nations preoccupied with domestic issues ahead of the scheduled Trump-Xi meeting in China, significant agreements on trade or Taiwan are improbable. Chieh added that an ongoing Middle East crisis would weaken Trump’s psychological stance in negotiations with Xi.
Trump’s ability to pressure Beijing has diminished after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down reciprocal tariffs. With Trump eager for a significant agreement before the November midterm elections, Beijing’s bargaining position would be strengthened, potentially leading Trump to make Taiwan-related concessions. Chieh expressed concerns that Trump might adjust U.S. rhetoric on Taiwan independence or limit political and military exchanges with Taipei, changes Beijing could see as significant achievements.
Chieh also warned that commitments made by Trump during his China visit could affect U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. While not canceled outright, these sales might face additional constraints, require workarounds, or experience delays. Prolonged Middle East fighting could deplete U.S. stockpiles and complicate Taiwan’s acquisition of systems like Patriot missiles and NASAMS, as NATO countries and Middle Eastern nations expand their air defense capabilities. Taiwan may have to compete with close U.S. allies for limited production capacity.