Tokyo: The Japanese government has labeled China as "an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge" in its latest defense white paper, marking a significant shift in tone from previous reports. This new stance highlights escalating tensions in the region, as Japan and its allies confront what they perceive as growing threats from Beijing.
According to Deutsche Welle, the annual defense white paper outlines the current threats facing Japan and the nation’s efforts to bolster its defense capabilities. The 2025 report emphasizes China’s expanding operational areas and increasing assertiveness, stating that international society is facing its most significant challenges since World War II. The document warns that China's intensified military activities are likely to persist and could severely impact Japan’s security, causing grave concern.
Analysts note that this year’s white paper reflects a series of military incidents involving China over the past year. Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an associate professor at Tokyo International University’s Institute for International Strategy, points out that the security environment is constantly changing, with increased activities involving China, North Korea, and Russia.
Recent encounters between Chinese and Japanese forces illustrate these tensions. In early July, a Japanese electronic surveillance aircraft was intercepted by a Chinese fighter-bomber in international airspace over the East China Sea. The Japanese Defense Ministry reported another similar maneuver the following day, prompting Tokyo to express serious concerns through diplomatic channels. Beijing, however, rejected the complaints, accusing Japan of spying on China’s normal activities.
Mid-June saw another incident when Chinese fighters, operating from the aircraft carrier Shandong, closely shadowed a Japanese reconnaissance aircraft for an extended period. Furthermore, Chinese coast guard vessels and aircraft have frequently operated in waters around the contested Senkaku Islands, which Japan controls but China claims. A large Chinese buoy was also discovered in the East China Sea archipelago waters.
In August 2024, a Chinese military reconnaissance plane intrusion into Japanese airspace led to Japanese fighters scrambling to intercept it, further straining diplomatic relations between the two nations. Hinata-Yamaguchi notes that China's assertiveness extends to the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, with an increasing pattern observed year-on-year.
China swiftly criticized Japan’s white paper, with the Chinese Foreign Ministry accusing it of reflecting a wrong perception of China and interfering in its internal affairs. Spokesman Lin Jian urged Japan to reflect on its historical actions and stop using tensions as a pretext for military buildup.
The white paper also reassures Washington of Tokyo’s commitment to increasing defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027. While this is below the 5% the US demands from its allies, Hinata-Yamaguchi suggests the report indirectly communicates Tokyo’s efforts to take greater responsibility for its defense and seeks to reinforce confidence in its alliance with the US.
Yakov Zinberg, a professor of international relations at Tokyo’s Kokushikan University, highlights concerns about deepening military alliances between China, North Korea, and Russia. He notes that China and Russia have conducted several joint military exercises, potentially signaling their combined power and deterring Japan from more active resistance. A notable maritime drill last year saw a joint fleet of Chinese and Russian warships circumnavigate the Japanese archipelago, interpreted as a show of force.