Bangkok, Kasikorn Research Center expects MPC cuts interest rates in the middle of this year After the economic momentum slowed Adjust the estimate This year’s GDP fell to 2.6% from 3.1%.

Kasikorn Research Center reports that from the Thai economy this quarter 4/2023 expanded lower than expected at 1.7% compared to the same period of the year. And if compared to the previous quarter, it contracted at 0.6%, reflecting the weakening momentum of the Thai economy. The pressure comes from a sharp contraction in public investment and a decline in inventory levels among the sectors. Slower production In addition, agricultural production decreased from Effects of El Niño

For the whole year 2023, the Thai economy expanded only 1.9%, lower than previously estimated. 2.5%, causing the Thai economy to recover higher than before. Extinguished before the Covid crisis (Compared to the level as of 4th quarter 2019) only 0.5%, which is a level quite lower than other countries in the region. Part of this is caused by struct
ural problems that As a result, the Thai economy has lower growth potential than other countries.

Kasikorn Research Center forecasts that the Thai economy in 2024 will grow at 2.6%, downgraded from 3.1% previously estimated. Due to the momentum in private spending that Slowing down as government measures to stimulate consumption decrease. together with the high base of the previous year

In addition, a delay in approving the 2024 budget may affect the investment spending of The government sector is not fully capable. Meanwhile, there are still many risks outside the country, such as the slowdown of the world economy. and geopolitical problems

The Thai economy in the first quarter of 2024 is expected to be stable from the previous quarter. Although the 2024 budget has not yet been approved, it is possible that the government sector will accelerate the disbursement of funds. The remaining money from the fiscal year 2023 budget will likely result in government spending not shrinking as severely. Same as in the
previous quarter. Meanwhile, Thai exports are expected to remain stable from the previous quarter following increased demand. Even the conflict in the Red Sea will affect the cost and duration of shipping.

In this regard, the Thai economy’s slower growth may increase the possibility that the Central Bank of Thailand may reduce the policy interest rate in the middle of 2024.

Source: Thai News Agency