Taipei: Taiwanese scholars said Friday that Chinese leader Xi Jinping's recent purge of top general Zhang Youxia could make China less likely to launch a major war in the short term, including a military invasion of Taiwan. China's Ministry of National Defense announced last Saturday that Zhang, a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and Liu Zhenli, chief of staff of the CMC's Joint Staff Department, are under investigation for "suspected serious discipline and law violations." The investigations are the latest in a series of senior-level purges that have significantly reduced the CMC's senior leadership roster -- leaving only Xi and CMC vice chairman Zhang Shengmin -- and underscored ongoing turbulence in the PLA's top command.

According to Focus Taiwan, the major shake-up and purge of senior PLA generals over the past two to three years could temporarily reduce the likelihood that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will launch a major war, said Kou Chien-wen, a political science professor at National Chengchi University (NCCU). Kou explained that the CMC still not being fully staffed and the need to fill positions at the CMC's Joint Operations Command Center contribute to this temporary reduction in war risk. He noted the absence of significant figures such as Zhu Chuansheng and Zheng Shoudong from a recent training seminar, suggesting they might also be affected by the shake-up. Kou emphasized that appointing personnel to fill vacancies at the CMC and its subordinate departments will take some time, though he did not provide a timeframe for these developments.

In a similar vein, Chieh Chung, an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, asserted that the likelihood of a PLA invasion of Taiwan in 2027 would not increase significantly due to Zhang's purge. The 2027 window refers to claims by some U.S. military and intelligence officials that Xi has directed the PLA to be combat ready to seize Taiwan by then. Chieh highlighted that China treats peaceful unification as its preferred option and noted that decisions regarding Taiwan are made by the CCP's Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, not solely by Zhang. While Taiwan should not be overly concerned about an immediate PLA invasion, Chieh urged vigilance in case of escalating cross-strait tensions.

Ma Chen-kun, a professor at National Defense University's Graduate Institute of China Military Affairs Studies, offered insights into Zhang's stance on Taiwan. Ma stated that although Zhang was not opposed to using force, he believed a full-scale armed operation against Taiwan should not be launched prematurely, given the PLA's current capabilities. Ma noted that Zhang's cautious approach and the uncertainty surrounding Xi's trusted military advisers contribute to an uncertain period regarding China's military strategy toward Taiwan. As potential successors remain unclear, this has introduced a period of "uncertainty" in China's approach to Taiwan.