Washington: Taiwan is “very important” to Japan for three strategic reasons, a Japanese scholar said Friday while discussing scenarios under which the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) could be mobilized. The issue has drawn attention since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi commented in November 2025 on what may constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan in the event of a Chinese naval blockade, amid rising tensions between Beijing and Tokyo.

According to Focus Taiwan, Ryo Kiridori, a research fellow at the National Institute for Defense Studies, speaking at a cybersecurity conference in Washington, emphasized Taiwan’s strategic significance to Japan due to its geographic proximity, its role in key sea lines of communication, and its economic importance. Any contingency involving Taiwan would heighten Japan’s sense of insecurity, he said, noting that Taiwan lies only about 111 kilometers from Yonaguni Island, Japan’s westernmost point.

Kiridori also presented images of maritime traffic that highlighted the heavy shipping flows around Taiwan, specifically in the Taiwan Strait and the Bashi Channel, which he described as critical choke points for the Japanese economy. Additionally, he pointed out Japan’s growing dependence on semiconductors imported from Taiwan, which he claimed accounts for roughly two-thirds of global semiconductor output.

According to Kiridori, Japan’s interpretation of collective self-defense applies to situations in which Japan is under armed attack, or when an armed attack against a country with close ties to Japan poses a clear threat to Japan’s survival. He referenced Prime Minister Takaichi’s remarks, indicating that a naval blockade and the use of force could be considered a threat to Japan’s survival, aligning with Japanese law and existing legal principles.

Kiridori dismissed the notion that Japan has moved toward strategic clarity on Taiwan, despite some interpreting Takaichi’s remarks on simulated scenarios as the country’s most explicit public stance to date. He noted that ambiguities and uncertainties remain in the decision-making process, with responses to be determined on a case-by-case basis following comprehensive assessments.

What is certain, Kiridori stated, is Japan’s desire to avoid confrontation. “We don’t want confrontation between the United States and China, and we don’t want a destabilized Taiwan Strait,” he said.