Taiwan’s Defense Initiatives Aim to Reassure US More Than Deter Beijing: Scholar

Taipei: Taiwan's increasing defense strategies may be aiming to send a reassuring message to the United States rather than serve as a deterrent to Beijing, according to a discussion by American security scholar Oriana Skylar Mastro. Mastro, a center fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, shared her insights at the Taipei Security Dialogue, where lessons from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East were assessed for Taiwan's context. According to Focus Taiwan, Mastro expressed her observations following a visit to Taiwan, noting the nation's enhanced defense budget, focus on asymmetric warfare capabilities, and societal readiness for potential conflict. However, she raised questions about the target audience of these efforts. Mastro recounted her interactions with Chinese officials and analysts, who largely indicated indifference to Taiwan's defense improvements, leading her to conclude that the primary audience for Taiwan's defense message is the United States. Taiwan's initiative to showcase its defense preparedness, particularly its capacity to defend without immediate external assistance, seems primarily directed at Washington. Mastro emphasized this as a fitting tactic to assure the U.S. of Taiwan's commitment to self-defense, yet she argued for a separate strategy to impact Beijing's strategic calculations. Mastro asserted that Taiwan's defense is not feasible without direct U.S. military aid, acknowledging her views as personal and not representative of the U.S. government. She urged Taiwan to communicate its defense advancements to Beijing to enhance deterrence while maintaining strong ties with the U.S. Chen Ping-Kuei, a professor at National Chengchi University's Department of Diplomacy, concurred with Mastro's assessment, noting Taiwan's public perception that defense signals are more effectively received by Washington than Beijing. He highlighted the political significance of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, suggesting that discussions of such sales with Beij ing could negatively impact Taipei. The discourse also touched upon concerns after former President Trump acknowledged discussing arms sales with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which contradicted the "Six Assurances" policy-an assurance that the U.S. would not consult China about arms sales to Taiwan. Beyond military defense, Wolfgang Mller from the German Institute for Defence and Strategic Studies emphasized Taiwan's need to ensure functionality if China attempts isolation tactics. He suggested Taiwan assess its ability to sustain essential services amidst interrupted external supplies and urged pre-positioning critical items to mitigate infrastructure vulnerabilities. Mller concluded that while Taiwan cannot render its infrastructure invulnerable, it can enhance its capacity for recovery, equating it to combat power.