Taipei: Taiwan is expected to experience slower growth in export orders in the latter half of 2025, following a robust performance in the first six months, as U.S. tariff hikes loom, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs.
According to Focus Taiwan, July export orders are projected to range between US$54 billion and US$56 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.9 to 11.9 percent. This forecast, though still positive, contrasts sharply with the first half of the year, where Taiwan recorded a higher year-on-year growth of more than 15 percent in four out of six months. January saw a 3 percent year-on-year decline, while March experienced a 12.5 percent increase, with the remaining months posting strong growth between 18.5 and 31.1 percent.
Industry feedback suggests that the robust demand in the first two quarters was driven by pull-in momentum from the "reciprocal tariffs" announced by U.S. President Donald Trump in April, although these measures were delayed until August. "Some companies said the momentum has faded, while others told us it's still continuing," stated Huang Wei-jie, head of the ministry's statistics department.
The ministry also released data on Taiwan's June export orders, which showed the second-highest figure on record for June, thanks to sustained global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) applications. Taiwan recorded US$56.77 billion in export orders in June, a 24.6 percent increase from the US$45.56 billion recorded in the same month last year. This marked the fifth consecutive month of year-on-year growth, following a record-breaking May that saw orders reach US$57.93 billion.
For the second quarter, Taiwan posted export orders worth US$171.1 billion, and US$320.6 billion for the first half, up 20.9 percent and 16.6 percent year-on-year, respectively. According to ministry data, AI and cloud-related demand drove orders for information and communication products to US$17.51 billion, up 37.4 percent from a year ago. Huang noted that these figures exceeded projections made a month earlier and that demand for AI-related products appears unaffected by the pending U.S. tariffs.
In contrast, traditional industries continued to struggle, with orders for rubber and plastic products falling 11.4 percent and basic metals declining 10.2 percent. Meanwhile, Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun is set to travel to the U.S. for a fourth round of negotiations over tariffs this week, amid rumors of a proposed 32 percent rate, which the government has denied.
Looking ahead, Huang indicated that another round of momentum could boost consumer electronics orders in August, as mobile phone brands typically unveil new models around that time. However, the outlook largely depends on the outcome of U.S. tariff decisions, "be it better or worse," he added.