Bangkok, Ministry of Finance It is expected that the Thai economy in 2024 will expand at 2.4 percent per year, accelerating from 2023 which expanded at 1.9 percent per year, mainly supported by the tourism sector that continues to expand. and the supporting role of fiscal policy for the remainder of the year.

Mr. Pornchai Teerawet, Director of the Fiscal Policy Office As a spokesperson for the Ministry of Finance Announcing the results of the projection of the Thai economy in 2024 that the Thai economy in 2024 is expected to expand at 2.4 percent (forecast range of 1.9 to 2.9 percent), expanding from 2023 which expanded at 1.9 percent” with strong support Support from the tourism sector that continues to expand is important. including the supporting role of fiscal policy during the rest of the year. It is expected that the tourism sector in 2024 will have 35.7 million foreign tourists traveling to Thailand, expanding at a high rate of 26.7 percent per year, having a positive effect on Tourism sector and rel
ated service businesses Create employment and increase people’s income. It has a positive effect on the confidence of the business sector. As a result, it is expected that private investment will expand at 3.7 percent per year (forecast range of 3.2 to 4.2 percent), while private consumption will continue to expand at 3.5 percent per year (forecast range of 3.2 to 4.2 percent). 3.0 to 4.0 percent) for merchandise exports will expand at 2.3 percent per year (forecast range of 1.8 to 2.8 percent). It is expected that merchandise exports will be able to recover in the second half of the year. and the value of merchandise imports will expand at 3.4 percent per year (forecast range of 2.9 to 3.9 percent), with capital goods expanding further. It reflects private investment that will increase in the future.

This economic expansion forecast has been lowered compared to the Ministry of Finance’s previous forecast as of January 2024 at 2.8 percent due to 1) merchandise exports shrinking more than expected, especially
industrial products. In the first quarter of 2024 2) Industrial production continued to contract as reflected in the Industrial Production Index. (Manufacturing Production Index: MPI), especially products in the automotive category and the parts and circuit board category

in the first quarter of 2024; 3) the agricultural sector is affected by drought and the El Niño phenomenon; and 4) the fiscal sector. that will continue to use budget disbursements for the year 2023 for the time being

In terms of stability within the country, it is at a stable level, with general inflation expected to be at 0.6 percent per year (expected range of 0.1 to 1.1 percent) following a decrease in prices of some food products. In addition, prices of products in the energy category decreased due to government measures to help with living expenses. while stability outside the country The service balance is likely to be in surplus following the increase in the number of foreign tourists. As a result, the current account balance in 20
24 is likely to return to a surplus of US$9.3 billion. or equivalent to 1.8 percent of GDP

A Ministry of Finance spokesman said that from now on, money from the 2024 budget will begin entering the Thai economy. This will help drive economic activity. As a result, the Thai economy will expand and accelerate during the remainder of 2024 for the long term. Developing the Thai economy to grow sustainably The Ministry of Finance has a clear vision regarding 1) Fiscal Sustainability, committed to prudent fiscal management.

Taking into account responsible government spending and public debt levels, and 2) raising the potential of the Thai economy (Potential GDP), focusing on national development at the regional and village levels. It builds on the vision in 8 areas under the government’s Ignite Thailand policy framework by promoting Thailand as a center for innovation and high-value industry. By attracting foreign direct investment in manufacturing and technology. as well as promoting skilled workers through educa
tional reform and vocational training. This will further increase the country’s production ability. Supporting these important issues will result in sustainable and stable growth of the Thai economy. Stepping into becoming a leader in the regional arena in the future. In addition, if the money from the 10,000 baht top-up project via Digital Wallet can start being spent within the 4th quarter of 2024, it will help increase purchasing power and support the Thai economy in 2024. Expanded at 3.3 percent per year (in the case that people spend most of their money by the end of 2024)

However, it is still worth following closely the factors that will affect the Thai economy, such as 1) global geopolitical conflicts in various regions that are becoming more severe; This may be a constraint and affect the growth of the Thai economy in the next period, such as the tension situation between Israel and Iran that may affect the price of energy to increase. Strategic competition between China and the United States. 2) Flu
ctuations in the global financial market from strict monetary policies of main trading partners and problems with financial institutions abroad. especially the United States and the European Union, and 3) the recovery of the economic conditions of Thailand’s important trading partners. Especially China from problems in the real estate sector.

Source: Thai News Agency