Taipei: Taiwan should bolster its defenses and enhance its surveillance of China following a decline in military spending under former President Ma Ying-jeou, despite a full-scale Chinese invasion in 2027 being unlikely, according to a U.S. expert on cross-strait relations. Speaking in Taipei on Tuesday, Peter Mattis, president of The Jamestown Foundation, highlighted the need for Taiwan to prioritize defense rebuilding and intelligence gathering to effectively deter potential threats from Beijing.

According to Focus Taiwan, Mattis addressed a conference on Taiwan-U.S.-China relations hosted by National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations. He pointed out that during Ma’s 2008-2016 presidency, a time when Taiwan-China relations were warmer, defense spending commitments of 3 percent of GDP were not met, dropping to as low as 2.1 percent. This underinvestment has persisted into the Democratic Progressive Party’s governance, with defense expenditure remaining below 3 percent of GDP through the terms of former President Tsai Ing-wen and current President Lai Ching-te.

In his National Day address on October 10, President Lai announced plans to increase defense spending to over 3 percent next year, with a target of 5 percent by 2030. Mattis stressed that the current pace of defense enhancement leaves Taiwan insufficiently prepared to serve as a deterrent. He also emphasized the importance of investing in capabilities to monitor the Chinese Communist Party’s military activities, highlighting the lack of day-to-day intelligence on the People’s Liberation Army’s operations.

Mattis underscored the significance of understanding the adversary’s capabilities for democratic leaders to effectively communicate challenges to their citizens. He advocated for the use of commercial and open-source data for intelligence gathering, noting that other countries, including the United States and Canada, also face similar challenges in tracking CCP activities.

Addressing the “Davidson Window,” a term from a 2021 statement by former U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Philip Davidson, Mattis clarified that it should be viewed as a capability target rather than an invasion directive. The remark pointed to a CCP Central Military Commission meeting where Xi Jinping ordered the PLA to be prepared for a potential Taiwan invasion by 2027.

Mattis further analyzed Beijing’s lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggesting that China understands the necessity of industrial capacity, electronic warfare, and drones in a prolonged conflict. Additionally, China recognizes the need to fortify its financial and economic systems against U.S. sanctions and reduce reliance on dollar-based transactions.

He concluded by stating that China likely prefers swift, decisive actions over gradual approaches that allow adversaries to regroup, drawing parallels to the differences in Ukraine’s military capacity between 2014 and 2022.