Taipei: U.S. military support against a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan will depend significantly on Taiwan’s ability to defend itself during the initial stages of any conflict, former Pentagon official Randall Schriver stated. Schriver, who served as assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs from 2017 to 2019, made these remarks following a tabletop exercise in Taipei. This event was jointly hosted by Taiwan’s Prospect Foundation, America’s Institute for Indo-Pacific Security, and Japan’s Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

According to Focus Taiwan, Schriver emphasized that if Taiwan cannot sustain its defense long enough, the U.S. might face challenges in intervening effectively to protect the island. He pointed out that Taiwan’s level of preparedness is intricately linked to the United States’ political decision-making regarding military intervention. Schriver highlighted the importance of anticipating nonkinetic actions, such as blockades, and building societal resilience as part of T
aiwan’s preparation.

Schriver praised the establishment of the Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience Committee by President Lai Ching-te in June 2024. The committee has been focusing on ensuring energy stability, maintaining communications, and supporting continuity of government operations. These elements, Schriver noted, are crucial beyond just weapon systems to help Taiwan withstand potential aggression from the People’s Republic of China.

Nobukatsu Kanehara, executive director of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, suggested that Taiwan should consider increasing its oil reserves and reevaluate the use of nuclear power, which was phased out in May, as a potential wartime energy source. Despite improvements in communication between the U.S. and Taiwan, Schriver identified gaps in real-time communication among the U.S., Taiwan, and Japan, which could be costly during an actual conflict.

Retired Japanese Adm. Tomohisa Takei, a senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, and Kanehara, remarked on the lack of
combined military exercises between Japan and Taiwan. This absence hampers their ability to enhance joint command and control capabilities. Schriver concluded by stating that any U.S. intervention in Taiwan would be “very scenario-dependent,” considering the lack of U.S. forces stationed in Taiwan and the absence of a formal alliance as practical considerations.