Taipei: Chinese President Xi Jinping may pose the greatest risk to Taiwan when facing political challenges at home while still retaining the power to act, rather than when his grip on China's leadership is most secure, a Taiwanese scholar said Friday. Academia Sinica academician Wu Yu-shan, a distinguished research fellow at the institution's Institute of Political Science, made the remarks after delivering a keynote speech at a seminar hosted by National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations.

According to Focus Taiwan, Wu Yu-shan challenged the common belief that a stronger Xi represents a greater threat to Taiwan. He argued that if Xi has full control domestically, he can afford to wait and has no need to take risks. However, when Xi is challenged, he may feel compelled to respond more forcefully. Wu introduced the concept of "ReMaoization" to describe the concentration of power under Xi, the expansion of party-state control over society, and the erosion of political norms established after the Mao Zedong era.

These changes have undermined established succession practices, making the outcome of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) 21st National Congress next year crucial not only for Chinese politics but also for Taiwan, Wu indicated. The most perilous scenario for Taiwan, Wu suggested, would be a repeat of the pattern seen at the previous congress, where Xi retained power while other senior leaders retired according to age limits, making him an exception to the rules.

This disparity could raise questions within the CCP about Xi's legitimacy, heighten the likelihood of further purges, and give him more incentive to show strength abroad, Wu explained. Consequently, Xi would have both the motivation and capability to take "decisive action."

Conversely, Wu suggested that a leadership model akin to that of former Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev could lead to greater stability across the Taiwan Strait. In this "Brezhnevian model," Xi and other senior officials would remain in office together, fostering a shared interest in maintaining the current leadership. Although this could result in an aging and inflexible political system, it would secure Xi's position and reduce his need for aggressive external actions for domestic political reasons.

Wu expressed a personal hope that the CCP might adopt the Brezhnevian model, although he acknowledged uncertainty about its likelihood.