Beijing: China’s newly announced economic proposals targeting the Kinmen and Matsu islands have sparked concern among scholars, who suggest these measures may aim to transform the islands into a model for cross-Taiwan Strait integration. This move could potentially deepen existing divisions within Taiwan.

According to Focus Taiwan, China unveiled a package of 10 measures coinciding with the conclusion of Kuomintang (KMT) Chairperson Cheng Li-wun’s six-day visit. These measures are intended to benefit specific sectors in Taiwan while promoting deeper integration with the Kinmen and Matsu Islands. Geographically, Kinmen and Matsu are Taiwan-administered territories located near China’s Fujian Province, which gives them closer ties to China than to Taiwan itself.

Tzeng Wei-feng, an associate research fellow at National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations, highlighted the significance of the proposed “four links”-water, electricity, gas, and bridges-between Fujian and the islands. He noted that these links could significantly impact physical integration. Currently, Kinmen imports most of its freshwater from China, while Matsu relies on local reservoirs. There are no existing electricity, gas links, or bridges, although passenger ferry services are operational under the “Mini Three Links.”

Tzeng suggested that the proposed “four links” are indicative of China’s strategy to heighten interdependence between Fujian, Kinmen, and Matsu, transforming them into a showcase of cross-strait integration. This approach aims to persuade Taiwanese citizens that peace and prosperity are achievable through integration. Additionally, expanded film, television, and youth exchanges could foster a stronger identification with China among Taiwanese.

However, Tzeng also warned of potential national security risks, including increased Chinese infiltration capabilities in Taiwan and potential grassroots pressure on the Taiwanese government to alter its policies. Despite the islands’ proximity to China and their small populations, it is unlikely that many Taiwanese will be swayed by these initiatives. Yet, Tzeng emphasized that China is more focused on advancing its unification agenda, potentially starting with Kinmen and Matsu and eventually moving toward Taiwan proper.

Tzeng acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the actual effects of Beijing’s policy but noted its bottom-up strategy, progressing from outlying islands to Taiwan proper and from economic to political realms.

Chang Hung-yuan, a professor at Chihlee University of Technology, cautioned that China’s measures could exacerbate internal divisions in Taiwan, particularly given the absence of formal bilateral contact. He suggested that any shortages of resources like water, electricity, or gas in Kinmen or Matsu could be framed by Beijing as a consequence of Taiwan’s reluctance to negotiate.

This perspective resonated with some members of the Kinmen County Council, including independent Councilor Tsai Shui-yu, who expressed interest in the completion of the proposed bridge, which Chinese authorities have reportedly constructed up to Kinmen’s doorstep. In contrast, Kinmen County Magistrate Chen Fu-hai acknowledged the limited actions possible without central government approval.

Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council echoed this sentiment, stating that cross-border infrastructure matters require evaluations and participation from relevant government agencies and formal negotiations between the two sides.