Taipei: Taiwanese scholars said Thursday that a recent drop in Chinese warplane activity around Taiwan was temporary, likely driven by Beijing’s desire for “political security” during the annual “Two Sessions” and higher fuel costs caused by tension in the Middle East. “I think the recent drop in People’s Liberation Army (PLA) warplane activity around Taiwan is short-term rather than a long-term trend,” Christina Chen, an assistant research fellow at the government-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said at a seminar in Taipei.

According to Focus Taiwan, Chen identified the need to maintain “political security” during the “Two Sessions” as a key reason for the reduced military activity. The “Two Sessions” are China’s annual meetings of its top legislature and political advisory body, which began in Beijing on March 4 and were set to conclude on Thursday. During this period, PLA warplane activity around Taiwan fell sharply, with only two sorties by PLA support aircraft detected in the southwestern part of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between March 1 and 10, as per Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND). However, as the meetings approached their conclusion, a total of five sorties by PLA fighter jets or unmanned aerial vehicles were detected in Taiwan’s ADIZ on Wednesday.

Chen elaborated that the “Two Sessions” were considered a “sensitive” period due to the presence of China’s top leaders, including Xi Jinping, in one location, raising concerns about internal security risks. She speculated that military drills or flights around Taiwan could potentially backfire, leading to fears of a military mutiny or an attempt on Xi’s life. Such concerns are rooted in Xi’s recent purge of senior PLA figures, which may have affected the military’s overall command and control. The situation was further intensified after the death of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Feb. 28, highlighting the risks of having senior figures gathered in one place.

Another possible reason for the reduced warplane activity, Chen noted, was fuel conservation. Disruptions linked to the U.S.-Iran military conflict have driven up energy prices and heightened supply concerns, impacting China, a major buyer of oil from Iran and Venezuela. Flights around Taiwan are inherently costly, requiring significant fuel, manpower, and resources, which adds up when operations are carried out frequently.

Wang Guo-chen, an associate research fellow at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, explained that with crude oil prices now around US$100 a barrel, the PLA may have to spend up to five times more on fuel. This significant increase in oil prices could lead to broader domestic price hikes, raising questions about whether military fuel should be redirected to stabilize supply and curb inflation. Wang highlighted that Chinese authorities would likely tighten control over oil stockpiles, as soaring fuel prices could spark public discontent.