The Stock Exchange of Thailand is confident that the Thai stock market will recover in 2024. After the previous period there was heavy volatility.

Mr. Sornphon Tulyasathien, Deputy Manager, Head of Corporate Strategic Planning Division The Stock Exchange of Thailand revealed that 2023 was a year in which Thai stocks were quite volatile. At the beginning of the year, there were concerns about whether the Fed would raise interest rates sharply. Because the inflation rate is quite high There is also the issue of the US bank having problems. Even if it’s a small bank But it caused concern about whether there would be a Recession or not, but in the end it did not affect the finances of the United States and Thailand. In the third quarter, there was another issue of the Israel-Hamas war, causing the entire year 2023 to be crowded with external factors. Stimulate As for our country, we also have elections in the first half of the year. As a result, many things had to be delayed. For example, the matter of the budg
et for 2023 has been postponed to May 2024.

In 2023, Thai stocks dropped approximately 15.2%, but in December they returned to positive 2.6%. The still worrying factor is the Fed, which has signaled that it will not raise interest rates anymore. And there will be a reduction in interest rates in 2024, which will result in prices starting to be seen and as a result, various assets will start to become more interesting. December is the first month of 2023 that will start to see foreign investors come back, which will continue. Coming to the beginning of 2024, the average daily trading value in December on SET and mai was 39,980 million baht, a decrease of 28.8% from the same period last year. The average daily trading value in 2023 was 53,331 million baht. Foreign investors made net purchases of 70 million baht, making in 2023 foreign investors net sales of 192,083 million baht, with foreign investors accounting for the highest proportion of trading value for the 20th consecutive month.

The Thai Stock Exchang
e’s Forward P/E at the end of December 2023 was at 16.7 times, higher than the average of Asian stock exchanges which was 13.4 times and Historical P/E was 19.4 times, higher than the average of Asian stock exchanges which was 19.4 times. It is at the level of 15.0 times.

However, we have to wait and see. What will it be like at the end of January? Because each day there are still various factors that cause fluctuations. Including the matter of predictions in 2024 from many agencies. Whether it is the national bank The Ministry of Finance, IMF world bank, predicts that the Thai economy will expand higher than in 2023, which is one of only a few countries in the world where GDP will grow more. And still need to keep an eye on tourist numbers to see if this year will meet the target or not. In 2023, some tourists have already returned. Pre-Covid numbers Thailand has approximately 40 million tourists. In 2023, the number is approximately 28 million, of which 90% are tourists from countries other than China, whi
le Chinese tourists, who form a large proportion, return only 30-40%, which is It remains to be seen whether Chinese tourists will return again in 2024 or not. This depends on 2 factors: the issue of free visa measures; For Chinese tourists and the matter of the Chinese economy itself, which is expected to improve But in the news that came out, there were still concerns about debt and banking. It remains to be seen whether the Chinese economy this year will be an additional or a negative factor in the travel of Chinese tourists to Thailand.

Although in 2023 the Thai stock market will produce lower returns than stocks in many countries that will benefit from capital inflows from the trend of falling bond yields and the weakening of the dollar. But if looking back in 2022, the SET Index is one of only a few indexes in the world that has produced positive returns. And if you consider the period 2022-2023, you will see that the SET Index moves similarly to other indices in the region.

In 2024, there is a chance
that investment funds will move to stock markets in the ASEAN region, especially the Thai stock market. Note that the baht tends to strengthen in the medium term. In addition, it is estimated that the Thai economy in 2024 will expand higher than expected. This follows the recovery of the tourism sector, exports, and domestic consumption. In addition, analysts have adjusted their forecasts for earnings per share growth (EPS Growth) and Forward P/E in 2024 of SET to an interesting point. in investing more than in the previous year. While there are many industries in the SET that have high EPS growth forecasts, their valuations are still below historical averages. There is also the matter of the government budget, which this year will have 2 pieces, the first in May. which was postponed from October last year and the second batch in October 2024 will be another additional factor. As for the yield of Thai government bonds, it is likely to have passed its peak, while the equity premium may increase according to an
alysts’ estimates, causing the SET’s earning yield gap, which is below average at the end of 2023, to tend to increase. Next year, in addition, according to historical statistics, in the next year that the SET Index gives a negative return, there will be a positive return every time.

However, we still need to keep an eye on factors that can be both risks and opportunities, namely the Global Economic Cycle and interest rates. Investor expectations Geopolitical factors and elections of large countries like the United States, including the issue of sustainability trends – Thai News Agency – 517 –

Source: Thai News Agency